A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
